For all the appealing qualities of the three other quarter-final ties, Tobias Gourlay is sure that this is the pick of the lot if it’s goals and attacking football you enjoy with the likes of Henry, Messi, Eto’o, Ribery and Klose on show. Best bet: Back over 2.5 goals @ [1.72].
Those who worry that Liverpool and Chelsea will neutralize each other, that Manchester United will too easily defeat Porto, and that Villarreal and Arsenal are not good enough, will watch Barcelona play Bayern Munich on Wednesday evening, and they will probably be richly rewarded for doing so.
These two are the joint-highest scorers in this season’s Champions League with 24 goals each from eight games. The hosts of the first leg, Barça, have conceded the most goals (11) of any of the quarter-finalists and, after five attempts, have still to keep a clean sheet on home soil. It is rare that Over 2.5 Goals is odds-on for the first leg of a Champions League knockout tie, but, even so, it is a firm recommendation at [1.72] because defence is not the first priority of either of these sides.
Bayern are favourites to retain the Bundesliga this season, but are surely being traded on the basis of reputation, not form. They were walloped 5-1 by top-of-the-table Wolfsburg on Saturday, falling to fourth as a result. Worse, Brazilian centre-half Lucio suffered a thigh injury in that game and must join his usual defensive partner, Daniel Van Buyten, on the sidelines.
Miroslav Klose, scorer of seven of Bayern’s 24 goals, is also injured, but Luca Toni and Franck Ribéry, who is reported to be a summer transfer target for Barça, should play. The Frenchman has earned comparisons with Lionel Messi this season, and it is no small compliment to suggest he would improve Guardiola’s team.
Die Roten are one of three unbeaten sides left in this season’s Champions League, defeating Sporting Lisbon 12-1 on aggregate in the Last 16, and finishing with the best Group Stage record of anyone. They even won on both of their previous visits to play Barcelona at the Camp Nou, but the most recent of these was a decade ago, and neither can be held against Pep Guardiola’s team.
The famous stadium was also the venue for Bayern’s crushingly late defeat to Manchester United in the 1999 Final. And, since last losing to Bayern, Barça have been very successful against German opponents, winning 10 and drawing one of their last 11 matches. They are [1.44] to win on Wednesday evening, and even shorter to qualify for the Semi Finals ([1.35]).
The long-term injury to Barça’s first-choice left-back, Eric Abidal, demands that captain Carlos Puyol be moved away from Dani Alves, the dashing right-back whom he covers so well. There will then be space from which Bayern can attack Victor Valdés, the brittle goalkeeper. Say “No” to the Barcelona Clean Sheet at [1.74].
From left to right, Thierry Henry, much improved in his second season at the club, Samuel Eto’o and Messi - 78 goals in 108 games between them this term - will start in attack. It is difficult to imagine Bayern’s second-choice central defenders containing them, and difficult to think of a reason for opposing the Catalans in the Match Outcome and To Qualify markets. Perhaps it is worth backing Bayern to qualify ([3.75]) in order to lay them at the shorter price that will become available if they can score on Wednesday and avoid a heavy defeat.
Then again, perhaps it’s the Asian Handicap that should be the focus of our attention. Such is the away goals rule in the Champions League that, if Barça do concede, they will not settle for a one-goal victory, but push on for a wider margin. Barcelona -1.5 is on offer at [2.38], but Barcelona -1.0&-1.5, which is currently available at [2.00], is more sensible because it is not yet clear to what extent Bayern will rein in their attack to supplement their defence, in the knowledge that the second leg at the Allianz Arena is still to come.
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Tags: bayern, final, match, victor
