Will this be the day when Manchester United wrap up their third consecutive Premier League title? BettorLogic think so. Best Bet: Back Man Utd/Man Utd @ [2.64].
Match Odds
Arsenal’s slender hopes of a third-place finish were dashed by a ruthless Chelsea side last weekend, condemning them to their second heavy defeat at home to one of their Big Four rivals in the space of less than a week. They now travel to Old Trafford with nothing more than revenge for their Champions League exit and the possible delaying of Manchester United’s Premier League coronation to play for.
There is precious little to suggest that United will blink here, having won 10 of their last 13 at home against the Big Four in all competitions, as well as six of their last seven hosting Arsenal and 33 of their last 36 at home to all teams in the league. For their part, Arsenal have lost 12 of their 20 games at the other Big Four teams in all competitions since their unbeaten season, including six of their last nine. They have put up slightly more of a battle in the league of late though, going W2-D3-L3 in those games over the last three years.
Arsenal haven’t lost away in the league since their last trip to Manchester (going down 3-0 at Eastlands in December), which is their longest run without defeat on the road in the league since their uneaten season. However, against the top half this campaign they have mustered only two wins, going W2-D4-L2 and have gone W10-D12-L13 at top-half sides dating back to the 05/06 campaign.
An away win appears all but out of the question and, given United’s recent record at Old Trafford, the home win ([1.65]) looks the only valid option.
Correct score
Two thirds (12/18) of the games at Old Trafford this season have finished with the home side winning to nil, with 1-0 and 2-0 (both 4/18) the most common. Against top-half sides over the past three seasons, United have won over half (14/26) to nil (six 2-0 and five 3-0), including half of their games hosting the Big Four (2-0 & 3-0 both 2/8). Over the same period, Arsenal’s most common away scores have been 1-1 & 0-0 (4/26 and 3/26, respectively), with 1-1 and 1-2 (both 2/8) the most common at the Big Four.
HT/FT
The D/L (6/14) has dominated Arsenal’s results at the Big four over the past five years, although has been less common recently (2/8 since 06/07). United seem to be held up more by lesser teams, with as many D/Ws as W/Ws (both 9/20) against bottom-half sides over the past two seasons but winning 11 of their 17 games top-half teams via the W/W (three D/Ws). In addition, six of their 10 games hosting the Big Four (in all competitions) in that time have ended in a W/W for them. Also, nine of Arsenal’s last 13 league defeats have been L/Ls which, with United’s figures, suggest Man Utd/Man Utd is the most likely outcome ([2.64]).
Man Utd clean sheet
As mentioned earlier, United have kept 12 clean sheets in 18 games at Old Trafford this season, as well as six in 10 games hosting the Big Four (in all competitions) over the last three seasons. Arsenal, however, have the best scoring record away against the Big Four, netting in 10 of 12 over the last three years, although both failures were at Old Trafford. They have also failed to net in three of their eight games at top-half teams this term and, while not particularly strong, there is enough to suggest there is some value in the United clean sheet at [2.36].
Arsenal clean sheet
Arsenal’s 1-0 win here in September 2006 was their last clean sheet at one of the Big Four and they have managed only four in 18 away games against all teams this season. United have scored in 36 successive home league matches and there is nothing to suggest that run will end here.
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