Bettorlogic’s Injuries And Suspensions Column: Chelsea hit hard by ACON absentees
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Bettorlogic have compiled a report using our player analysis tool Player PRO highlighting the most important players that are likely to be missing across the Premier League this weekend.
NB Player appearances are based on a player starting and completing at least an hour of the match unless otherwise stated. The sample is based on a team’s home and away league matches since the start of last season unless otherwise stated.
Chelsea v Sunderland
Didier Drogba
Chelsea have been one of the teams hardest hit by the African Cup of Nations with Didier Drogba, Michael Essien, Salomon Kalou, and John Obi Mikel all away in Angola.
While Chelsea have some relatively easy fixtures this month, the absence of these key players is likely to significantly weaken The Blues. Since the start of last season Chelsea’s PPG has been 2.58 in the 19 matches that Kalou has played compared to just 2.03 PPG in the 39 games he’s missed, while for Mikel their PPG has fallen from 2.33 in 39 matches with the Nigerian to 1.95 in the 19 he’s missed. Chelsea’s PPG has also been higher when Drogba and Essien have been playing than when they have been away, despite the fact they have both played a higher proportion of matches against the top teams than most of Chelsea’s other players.
Chelsea are still rightfully strong favourites to send Sunderland packing with the Mackems possessing a particularly unthreatening away record. However, there may well be fewer goals without their African stars as the numbers of goals scored have fallen when any of the four have been missing. In fact the number of matches with three or more goals when Drogba’s been missing has fallen from 62% in the 33 he’s played to 40% in the 25 he’s missed. Similarly, the number of over 2.5 goals matches without Essien has fallen from 62% in 21 games to 46% in the 37 he’s missed.
Chelsea have been a largely over 2.5 goals team this season but only six of the 14 matches that Drogba has missed at Stamford Bridge since 2008/09 have seen three or more goals and there looks to be value in the under 2.5 goals market at [2.35].
Round-up
Spurs v Hull
Spurs have been dominant at home since Harry Redknapp took charge last season and having already stuck five past Hull earlier this season they will be expecting something similar at White Hart Lane this weekend. Hull’s already formidable task will only be made harder by the absence of Daniel Cousin and Seyi Olofinjana.
Olofinjana has missed five away matches since joining Hull this summer with The Tigers earning just one point and losing by two or more goals four times and by three or more on three occasions. Cousin has barely been used by Phil Brown this season despite Hull winning half of the eight away matches he played last season and failing to win any of the last 19 road games he’s missed.
Spurs should win this at a canter and look good value to beat the -1.5 Asian handicap at [1.79].
Everton v Man City
Everton’s long-term injured players are getting close to fitness but they are still without Phil Jagielka and Joseph Yobo in defence. Yobo is away at the African Cup of Nations playing for Nigeria and while he has been a key player for the Toffees on the road, they actually have a significantly better record at Goodison without him.
Since the start of last season Everton have won six and lost seven of their 19 home games with Yobo while they remain unbeaten on the road without him - winning five of 10 matches and conceding just seven goals.
Instead it may be that Man City are hit harder by the absence of Kolo Toure as they have drawn all three matches he’s missed this season and another draw looks the best value bet at [3.33].
Stoke vs. Liverpool
On the back of Liverpool’s dramatic loss in the FA 3rd round against Reading, more salt has been added to a very open wound with the loss of Fernando Torres (six weeks), Yossi Benayoun (4 weeks) and club captain Steven Gerrard (2 weeks) all placed on the Liverpool injury list. All three have been key players for Liverpool recently, notching up 114 appearances between them during this season and last.
In the 26 games Torres and Gerrard have played together, 69% have been won and they have brought an average 2.19 points per game, compared to the 1.94 points per game in the 32 games they did not play together in. Interestingly Torres and Gerrard have played in seven games, since last season, against middle-third sides away from home winning five out of the seven. However, when not playing together, Liverpool have only won 33% of these games. On current form and with morale low, a win which Liverpool so desperately needs, seems ever increasingly unlikely. A lay of the Reds is the best way to go [2.2].
